2026 Hurricane Season Forecast Near Average With 13 Named Storms Expected

The first major outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is pointing to a slightly below-average year, but experts are cautioning that this does not reduce the need for preparedness, especially for vulnerable countries like Belize. According to researchers at Colorado State University, a total of thirteen named storms are expected to develop across the Atlantic basin this year. Of those, six are forecast to become hurricanes, with two intensifying into major hurricanes, Category Three or higher.  The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between August and October. While the forecast suggests activity at about seventy-five percent of the long-term average, forecasters stress that even a quieter season can still be dangerous.

The outlook is being largely influenced by the anticipated development of El Niño conditions later this year. El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear, making it harder for storms to organize and strengthen. Current projections indicate a more than sixty percent chance that El Niño will develop between May and July and persist through the end of the year.  Despite this, meteorologists are warning that uncertainty remains, particularly with sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic showing mixed signals. The early outlook also estimates a thirty-five percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the Caribbean.