Chief Meteorologist Warns of Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

Chief Meteorologist Warns of Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

And while the conversation on the eclipse was light-hearted, Chief Meteorologist Gordon also spoke seriously on the forecast for the upcoming 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. His caution follows the forecast produced by Colorado State University for an above-average hurricane season. Gordon concurred that record high water surface temperatures and the transition from the El Nino to the La Nina weather phenomenon will produce conditions favorable for the formation of storms. 

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist: “That forecast is of course early, it’s preliminary. We’re in April and from what we have seen in the past there is some limited skills to those early season forecasts. Notwithstanding that, CSU has indicated that they have an above normal confidence in this particular forecast and the reason for this of course is because the predictors are suggesting that it’s going to be quite active. So, we have said this before but it’s worth repeating the two main contributing factors to activity in the Atlantic basin are one, how warm the Atlantic itself is in terms of the sea surface temperatures and two, whether we are having El Nino-La Nina or neutral conditions. So for those two factors, the Atlantic basin is very, very warm. It’s above average. It’s quite very much above average for this time of the year. So that means there is a lot of energy there for these systems to develop and intensify. Secondly, the other factor that I mentioned is El Nino-La Nina. We are expecting that by the peak of the hurricane season, the 2024 hurricane season, we would have transitioned from El Nino to La Nina. And that means that there will be less vertical wind shear. Again, I’ve said this before, but to educate people, vertical wind shear means how much difference there is between the wind at one level, the lower levels and the higher levels. So if these winds are quite different and coming from different direction it means that your tropical cyclones cannot intensify because there is that disruptive force. The top of these thunderstorms are torn apart thereby reducing the possibility for intensification. That’s when you have El Nino. When you have La Nina now the vertical wind shear is less therefore you have that possibility for systems to become better organized and intensify and become major hurricanes and so forth.”

Gordon also said that the public should heed the warnings and begin, even at this early stage, to review their hurricane preparedness plans.

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist: “Whenever you have the odds of a higher than normal season therefore it would indicate that the odds for us are also higher than normal that one could come our way. So we know that the 23 named storms that are predicted all of them will not come here, or they will not go in one direction, right? That’s a prediction for the entire basin. However, because we know that it’s a super active season then the odds of us having one is increased. The figures that I had from CSU as well is that the typical average for us getting a named storm within 50 miles of our coastline on average is 42%. This year it’s at 60%. So there’s a higher probability that there’s a storm coming nearer to us. And one thing I failed to mention in terms of the total numbers, what is the average? The average is for there to be 14 named storms. Of those 14, 7 typically become hurricanes and 3 of those become major hurricanes. And that’s an average over the last 30 years from 1991 to 2020. We know that when you average systems out it doesn’t mean that it’s gonna follow that particular average every time. So because we typically have every six years and we had Lisa in 2022, that certainly is not any reason for our residents to become complacent and say that well it won’t happen again until maybe 2027. No, not at all. We need to be prepared each year because the possibility for one coming our way is the same each year whether we had one last year or not. So the laws of averages doesn’t mean that you have to wait for that particular period for there to be another one.”

The forecast calls for calls for twenty-three named storms, and eleven hurricanes, five of which are expected to become major hurricanes.

Related post

Atlantic Basin Braces for Above-Normal Hurricane Season, NOAA Predicts 17-25 Storms

Atlantic Basin Braces for Above-Normal Hurricane Season, NOAA Predicts…

The National Weather Service in the United States has sound the alarm to those in the Atlantic Basin to prepare for…
Cayo District Reports Wildfires Amid Unusual Dry Season and Extreme Heat

Cayo District Reports Wildfires Amid Unusual Dry Season and…

Wildfires have also been reported in portions of the Cayo District.  The destruction, however, has been minimal compared to the situation…
NEMO Validates Disaster Management Audit Ahead of 2024 Hurricane Season

NEMO Validates Disaster Management Audit Ahead of 2024 Hurricane…

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) met with its various partners yesterday to validate an audit of the country’s disaster management…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *