Preliminary Phase Declared as Tropical Storm Sara Approaches

The first hurricane flag is up tonight as the Government of Belize has declared the preliminary phase under the National Hurricane Response Plan. This afternoon, Tropical Depression Sara upgraded to a tropical storm just off the coast of Central America.  According to the National Hurricane Center, the system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula late this weekend with strong winds and heavy rainfall.  Tonight, the storm continues to move westward with maximum sustained winds recorded at 40 mph but is expected to slow down. The system remains just off the northern coast of Honduras where tropical storm conditions are expected.   Belize’s National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) held a press conference this morning where experts briefed the media on the anticipated impacts and the forecast for tropical storm Sara.  Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon explained that the worst case scenario would be a category one hurricane making landfall on Belize.   

Ronald Gordon, Chief Met Office: “You can see the pressure going up that’s because of land interaction. Eventually you see it move across towards Belize with a pressure of about 1,003 millibars which would indicate either a depression or maybe a weak tropical storm at this point in time from this particular model. And again I caution and well for this case this model is showing that to occur late Sunday evening that would be 6 p.m. actually local time on Sunday evening. Models are not gospel truth. You have two models with two different solutions because again they have different assumptions. So I think it’s important that we know these things and inform the public that whenever you see someone presenting a model, they are not presenting what exactly is going to occur. No forecast can be very precise or exact. And hence again, and that’s the reason why, of course you have this uncertainty cone indicating that yes, the depression is moving towards us but there is a possibility it can go in either direction. However, the most likely scenario from this probability distribution is that it will move in the center. That’s where the highest probability is. And as you move further away from the center, the probability decreases. So there is a good chance that Belize, a very likely chance that Belize will be impacted by a tropical storm sometime on Sunday, late Sunday, possible Monday morning. Timing is also variable because no one can predict exactly when these models again are not perfect so I need to make that emphatically clear. So what are the potential impact based on what I’ve presented? Rainfall. That’s what the system is going to produce. So what you’re seeing on the screen now is the rainfall accumulation predicted again by a model. So bear in mind that it doesn’t have to be that exact volume. But what you’re seeing these shades of orange into red indicate very high rainfall and this is from  midnight this morning to about midnight on Monday.”

The fate of the storm is expected to be affected by a number of factors as it continues to move westward, but uncertainty remains as to whether Sara will weaken or gain momentum. The 3pm weather advisory notes that, ‘the center of Sara will move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Some strengthening is expected and Sara should have maximum sustained winds of around 50 mph at landfall in Belize.’  This morning, Gordon noted that there remains a possibility for Sara to weaken.

Ronald Gordon, Chief Met Office: “As you saw, there’s a cone, right? So it means that the system’s center can pass anywhere within that cone. As I had indicated, of course, it’s a probability distribution. So the highest probability is in the center of that cone which most people focus on. But that’s not 100%. If it was 100%, we wouldn’t have a cone. We would have a line showing you that I’m sure that that’s going there. So it can change. That’s the long and short answer. It can change. However, it’s most likely to affect and impact the country somewhere in the center of that particular cone. In terms of intensity, again, that is also not as certain. One of the factors that could prevent further strengthening is interaction with land, as I showed. The system is forecast to move very near to the coast of Honduras, and if it juggles even a bit south into the mainland Honduras, it will weaken farther. However, if it remains offshore, then it will be a bit stronger. So there is still some variance within that intensity forecast. Currently, the forecast is for it to come ashore as a 50 mile per hour storm. And that’s down from yesterday when they had it at 70. So it’s trending downward because that means that more of the models are showing it weakening overland in Honduras. The extreme worst case scenario which is outside of the forecast right now is perhaps a category one hurricane. We’re not seeing that, but that’s the extreme worst. Currently it’s at 50 miles per hour, so that’s what we’re expecting. Best case, it weakens further over Honduras and comes across as a depression and just be a rainfall producer. But important to note, rain is a significant hazard. If we get 10 to 15 inches of rainfall that could cause significant flooding across this country. And it’s important for persons to know that the main fatalities from tropical systems is not the wind, it’s actually the water. So be prepared.”

NEMO has begun to plan for the storm’s impacts and has ordered district committees to make preparations in their respective communities. However, the organization says it is unable to say when businesses should begin to close and provide employees with the necessary time to prepare. The National Coordinator of NEMO, Retired Captain Daniel Mendez explained that NEMO understands it is a concern among the public, but making such a decision is ultimately left up to the Prime Minister, who is out of the country. 

NEMO says it will continue to provide updates as the system continues to develop.