Weekend Rains Expected

This weekend is forecast to be a wet one, but Belizeans don’t need to be overly concerned about the developing system moving up from Nicaragua. The National Hurricane Center in the US gives the area of low pressure a 60 percent chance of becoming a sub-tropical formation over the next few days. However, Belize’s National Meteorological Service, says that even if the system develops, Belize is not in its projected path. Senior Climatologist Shanea Young says that Belize is expecting between two and four inches of rain for the weekend. 

Shanea Young, Senior Climatologist, NHS: “The area that is hashed out for the possible development of that system does not include Belize. It doesn’t include the northern Belize at this time. And it is expected not in the next two days, but in the seven-day outlook that it has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical depression. So between now and Saturday, nothing is expected to form because that percentage is 10%, which is very low for the next 48 hours. But in the longer term, up until next week Thursday it has a 60% chance of forming a tropical depression. But like I mentioned, currently it doesn’t pose a threat for us. And also in terms of the rainfall guidance between now and Monday morning it’s not expected to bring like significant rainfall for Belize. We are going to continue to get a few showers or periods of rain between now and at least up until Sunday before it kind of decreases on Monday. But between now and Sunday, the rainfall amounts for the entire period is about two to four inches. So no significant or excess rainfall, like two to four inches in a particular day is expected between now and Monday morning because the total accumulated rainfall is going to be about two to four inches. And so far, most of that rainfall is going to continue to follow the similar pattern of it being along the coast or offshore areas, like we have been seeing over the last few days.”

Young says that Belize’s peak for storms in the hurricane season is traditionally between September and October, but that the public should remain vigilant until the end of the season.

Shanea Young, Senior Climatologist, NHS: “Right now the NHC is forecasting that if it does develop into a depression, it will move on a northward track so towards maybe Jamaica or Hispaniola, that direction currently. And so if it does go that way, then by next week Tuesday it will be out of our area. Peak for Belize especially is normally between September and October. So that’s why most of our storms or tropical cyclones tend to affect us during that period. But that’s not to say that you can’t get storms forming outside of the period and even outside of the hurricane season because we have had storms form later or other parts of the year. But for us, at least in the next seven days, even though there is this broad area of low pressure currently, there’s nothing that has developed in the area. And then also, at least the models are indicating at this time that even if something does form, it’s not going to come towards us. But like I mentioned, we are in the hurricane season, so we’re supposed to always be monitoring. And that is exactly what we do here at the Met Office, 24 hours monitor just in case that anything does develop. But at least for now, in the next seven days, even with this area of low pressure, it doesn’t look like it will be of a threat to us.”